Bass Probability Score

Photorealistic angler checking a bass probability map on Clear Lake

Apex Intelligence

Today’s Clear Lake Bass Probability Score

A credibility-first model for deciding which Clear Lake arm to fish, what pattern to start with, and which missing live data still needs verification before calling the bite.

Apex score

60
● Live public-data MVP — no paid feeds

The score now pulls from free public sources and clearly labels missing or stale inputs.

Today’s Clear Lake Bass Probability Score

Know the best arm before you launch.

South lake: Rattlesnake arm rock piles, Keys deep docks, steep rocky banks, Cache Creek, and shad balls — especially when rain muddies the north bowl.

Best armHighlands Arm
Best depth3–10 ft / active edges; verify water temp locally
ConfidenceLow — some public inputs are missing or stale
Last updated: 2026-07-30 10:31:47. Current conditions are public-data estimates, not guaranteed on-water observations.
UpperOaksHighlands🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟🐟
Provided Clear Lake map image: bass probability polygons are overlaid at 50% opacity with fish icons for public report and JD Blackmore transcript hotspot targets. Tap a lake arm or fish icon to open its popup over the map; close it to return to the full map view.
Upper Arm: 43
Oaks Arm: 65
Highlands Arm: 68
🐟Public reports + JD transcript hotspots

Bite windows

Timing is built from sunrise/sunset, wind, cloud cover, heat, and moon phase.

75Morning window6:10 AM–9:30 AM

Start shallow around tules, outside grass edges, shade lanes, and clearer pockets before boat traffic and sun pressure build.

65Midday adjustment11:00 AM–3:00 PM

Move to dock shade, deeper tule edges, rock/dock transitions, and outside weed edges. Slow down if wind dies.

69Evening pushLast 2 hrs before 8:24 PM

Look for windblown points, shade lines, and bait activity. Reaction baits improve if wind holds.

Patterns & lures

Recommended baits update from wind, heat, cloud cover, water temperature context, and algae/HAB risk.

Skipped Senko / Ned / shaky head

Heat and sun push fish toward dock shade, shade pockets, and slower presentations.

Craw jig / Texas rig

Water temperature is in a workable bass-feeding band for rock, tule edges, and transitions.

Finesse away from stagnant bloom pockets

HAB caution favors cleaner water, wind-mixed banks, shade, and deeper edges over stagnant shallow mats.

Zone scores

Each arm is scored separately before the best arm is selected and colored on the probability map.

43Upper Arm

Conditional / lower confidence

North bowl targeting from JD Blackmore: Lakeport docks, Nice/Lucerne docks and trees, Rodman Slough, tules/brush, and creek mouths can play when the water is not blown out. After rain, downgrade muddy runoff and hunt clearer pockets.

65Oaks Arm

Playable secondary pattern

Mid-lake/Oaks targeting from JD Blackmore: the transition near Soda Bay and Buckingham starts the steeper, rockier water with more depth under docks. Prioritize clear water, dock shade, rock/dock transitions, and shad moving past deeper docks.

68Highlands Arm

Best current public-data read

South/Highlands targeting from JD Blackmore: Rattlesnake arm rock piles, the Keys, deep docks, steep rocky banks, Cache Creek, and shad balls are priority targets, especially in winter or after rain when clearer water may hold south/mid-lake.

Why this score?

The model explains the major boosts, caps, and confidence penalties instead of hiding the logic.

  • Wind is outside the ideal range, so the model leans more selective.
  • USGS lake level / Rumsey-style gauge is connected and factored into accessibility and shallow-cover confidence.
  • Latest public HAB record says Caution, so stagnant shallow-water confidence is capped.
  • Water temperature feed is stale, so seasonal phase is used as context rather than a hard live reading.
  • Moon phase is included for bite-window timing, but it is a smaller factor than wind, water, and algae risk.
  • Highlands Arm is currently ranked highest after comparing heat, wind, algae/DO risk, and seasonal zone patterns.

Live public inputs

Air temp87.8°F
Wind2.9 mph
Pressure1011.3 hPa
Rumsey / gage4.34 ft
Water temp64°F
Dissolved oxygen0.2 mg/L
HAB advisoryCaution
MoonWaning Gibbous
Sunset2026-07-30T20:24
Missing / caution inputs:
  • USGS water temperature reading is older than 7 days; showing it as context, not live lake truth.
  • USGS dissolved oxygen reading is older than 7 days; manual algae/low-DO verification still recommended.
  • Latest selected HAB record is older than 14 days; check current shoreline conditions before fishing or swimming.

Free data sources checked

Open-Meteo weather / wind / pressureStatus: ok

No-key weather forecast loaded

View source
USGS Clear Lake at Lakeport levelStatus: ok

Lake stage / elevation loaded

View source
USGS Clear Lake water-quality mooringStatus: ok

Water temp / DO / pH loaded if station is current

View source
CA Open Data HAB bloom reportsStatus: ok

Latest Lake County Clear Lake HAB record checked

View source
NWS active weather alertsStatus: ok

No active weather alerts at the lake point

View source
USNO sun / moon dataStatus: ok

Moon phase / illumination loaded

View source

What the score will answer

  • Which Clear Lake arm is most likely to produce a better bass count today.
  • Best pattern, location type, depth band, and bite window.
  • Which lure categories fit the active conditions.
  • Confidence level and missing-data warnings.

Source discipline

Apex will use live or verified inputs only. If water temperature, clarity, algae/HAB risk, dissolved oxygen, lake level, or vegetation condition is unknown, the page says so instead of turning guesses into “today’s” facts.

Useful source categories include official advisories, lake-level data, weather/wind feeds, guide reports, tournament reports, public catch signals, and manual on-water observations.

Live public inputs now connected

The score now refreshes from no-fee public inputs: weather and wind, lake level, HAB reports, moon/sun timing, NWS active alerts, and USGS water-quality readings when current. Stale water-temperature or dissolved-oxygen readings are shown as context and clearly flagged instead of being treated as live lake truth.